Korea KMA offers high-res weather data, plans 15-min forecasts
The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) announced on September 29, 2026, it is providing high-resolution energy weather forecast information for solar and wind power generation. This initiative aims to reduce the annual 1.8 trillion KRW economic loss from electricity supply-demand prediction errors and will expand to 15-minute ultra-short-term forecasts by 2027.
Our take
Can VPP operators in Korea earn money from better solar and wind forecasting?
Korean VPP operators can earn only modest forecasting income today, at most 4 won per kWh, and the incentive ends with renewable market bidding, so the upside depends on how its replacement prices accuracy.
The incentive paid about 23.5 billion won in 2025, while the power exchange puts the cost of supply-demand forecast errors at about 1.8 trillion won a year. Aggregators that bid renewables carry the forecast, so how renewable bidding rewards proven accuracy decides whether their share grows.
What the source says
- The Korea Power Exchange estimates that if renewable energy capacity expands to 100 GW, the annual cost due to prediction errors could exceed 5 trillion KRW.
- Reducing prediction errors by 20% could lead to annual savings of approximately 1 trillion KRW.
- The Korea Meteorological Administration's regional model provides forecasts up to 120 hours (5 days), while the local model provides forecasts up to 48 hours (2 days).
- Starting in 2027, the Korea Meteorological Administration will provide 'no-wind' and 'low-insolation' information to help anticipate conditions where solar and wind generation is difficult.
- Ahn Hee-jin Ahn Hee-jin, Director of the KMA's Weather Service Promotion Bureau, stated that energy weather forecast information can be used for power generation prediction, supply-demand planning, facility management, and improving power market efficiency.
- Wind forecasts are provided at heights of 10m, 80m, 140m, and 220m, reflecting actual wind turbine heights, based on expert consultation.
- The power industry has expressed a need for even more granular ultra-short-term forecast information, such as 5-minute intervals.
For investors — VPP operators and aggregators should test the Korea Meteorological Administration's 1 km, hub-height and, from 2027, 15-minute data against current forecast inputs, and build an accuracy record that supports a case for higher rewards under renewable bidding.
Solar and wind developers should choose an aggregator on forecasting performance as well as fees, because the forecasting incentive ends once renewable bidding starts and accuracy is then priced by the new rules.
Watch: Korea Meteorological Administration's release of 15-minute ultra-short-term energy weather forecasts and 'no-wind/low-insolation' information in 2027.
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