Noh Dong-seok critiques 12th BPS's conflicting goals amid surging AI power demand
Noh Dong-seok, a research fellow at Seoul National University, argues that the delayed 12th Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand (12th BPS) faces significant challenges in balancing conflicting goals like carbon neutrality, energy security, and electricity tariffs, especially after a substantial upward revision of power demand forecasts driven by AI.
Our take
How do Korea's ambitious energy targets and surging AI demand challenge the stability and cost-effectiveness of the 12th BPS?
The Korean government's revised power demand forecasts and ambitious renewable energy targets for the 12th BPS create a significant capacity gap of at least 20GW, even with proposed changes to include BESS and adjust peak contribution, necessitating a transparent evaluation of system costs and potential nuclear expansion.
The author highlights a fundamental tension: the government's simultaneous pursuit of carbon neutrality through massive renewable expansion and energy security, while facing surging AI-driven demand and a commitment to coal phase-out. This leads to a projected 63GW new capacity requirement, which current proposals for renewables and BESS only partially address, leaving a substantial deficit. The analysis emphasizes that simply listing good goals without transparently addressing their conflicting nature and associated system costs (like grid reinforcement, curtailment, and reserve power for intermittent sources) will lead to an economically unfeasible plan and higher electricity tariffs for consumers.
What the source says
- The author used AI to evaluate the 12th BPS, which responded that 'good energy policy is not made by listing good goals' and that the listed policy goals are 'mutually conflicting' and 'nearly impossible' to reflect simultaneously.
- The announcement of the 12th BPS draft is delayed beyond its original schedule.
- The delay in the 12th BPS draft is attributed to an increase in power demand caused by AI, further exacerbated by the announcement of the '3 Mega Projects for Korea's Great Leap Forward'.
- The government is reportedly considering revising the calculation method for renewable energy's peak contribution.
- The government is reportedly considering including Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) as supply facilities in its capacity planning.
- The author cautions that even if the government's new calculation method for renewable energy and BESS is accepted, an additional 20GW of new generation capacity would still be required.
- The author argues that expanding renewable energy entails system costs for BESS, reserve power, grid reinforcement, and curtailment, which must be transparently presented alongside generation costs and electricity bill impacts.
- The author concludes that the 12th BPS should be a 'design blueprint for a feasible power system' rather than a 'list of goals', emphasizing the need for transparent prioritization and cost disclosure.
For investors — Investors and operators in Korea's DER market should anticipate significant grid reinforcement and flexibility resource investment needs, alongside potential policy shifts towards nuclear power, as the government grapples with meeting ambitious capacity targets and managing system stability and costs.
Watch: The official announcement and detailed contents of the 12th Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand draft.
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